Fresh water is one of the most precious resources on the planet, and NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) performs around-the-clock, real-time forecasting of how much water flows across the nation’s rivers, streams, and coastlines, as well as when that occurs. NWS also forecasts the impacts from extreme events like floods and droughts.
Staying up to date with and effectively responding to changes in how water flows across the country requires increasingly sophisticated forecasting tools. Therefore, the National Weather Service’s Office of Water Prediction (OWP) signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA), with Upstream Tech, Inc., to evaluate how artificial intelligence (AI)-based forecasts can be used to support operational water prediction capabilities, which inform decision-making for water management, flood response, and emergency services. It will also evaluate how useful NOAA’s data is in improving AI-generated forecasts and inform a broader strategy for integrating AI technology into those capabilities.
OWP collaboratively researches, develops, and delivers timely and consistent, state-of-the-science national hydrologic analyses, forecast information, data, guidance, and decision-support services to inform essential emergency management and water resources decisions across different time scales. Integrating AI into OWP’s water prediction capabilities offers an opportunity to expand and enhance the nation’s water prediction systems to protect life and property and support economic enrichment.
“As our nation’s water challenges grow increasingly complex, the need for precise and comprehensive water prediction information has never been more critical,” said Fernando Salas, Director of the OWP Geo-Intelligence Division. “Through this CRADA, we aim to meet 21st century water resources challenges by exploring how AI can transform and strengthen water forecasting, creating pathways for more efficient and streamlined operations, and extending mission impact.”
Upstream Tech, Inc. develops software to support and inform decision-making across land and water management. Their software, HydroForecast, which applies software engineering, machine learning, and geospatial science to forecasting, is at the heart of the CRADA agreement. Through this agreement, HydroForecast will be deployed at multiple sites to demonstrate to NOAA how the tool may be used to expand capabilities and improve forecast accuracy.
“Working with NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction is a huge milestone for the Upstream Tech, Inc. team, and marks the start of an exciting chapter for AI water prediction more broadly,” says Marshall Moutenot, CEO and co-founder of Upstream Tech, Inc. “We’ve seen what AI forecasts can unlock for our commercial partners, so we are eager and excited to partner with the experts in the Office of Water Prediction to explore the potential benefits to the National Water Model framework.”
The collaboration between OWP and Upstream Tech, Inc. directly supports the NOAA mission to build a “weather-ready nation” that proactively manages risks related to drought, flooding and water quality. It will demonstrate the value of integrating state-of-the-art AI-based hydrologic prediction capabilities into NOAA operations, maximizing the potential return on investment for existing NOAA water prediction systems.
NOAA regularly partners with private sector companies through CRADAs to conduct research and development activities that are mutually beneficial and help accomplish NOAA’s mission. NOAA CRADAs are coordinated through NOAA’s Technology Partnerships Office.