NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) has signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences Inc. (RRRS) to advance tropical cyclone forecasting using improved methods of combining predictions by several forecast models. This collaboration builds on a long-standing relationship between the two organizations and reflects their shared goal of using science to better protect communities from hurricane threats.
For decades, NHC has used consensus forecasting—combining several computer models as guidance to create a prediction of a storm’s path and strength that is more accurate than any one model alone. Consensus methods have grown more advanced over time, and new techniques now allow forecasts to give more weight to the models that have historically performed the best.
RRRS brings to this effort its deep expertise and exclusive commercial rights to the Superensemble model, originally developed at Florida State University. This sophisticated method adjusts forecasts based on past model performance, helping forecasters better understand a storm’s likely path and intensity.
“This partnership with RRRS has helped NHC continue to refine models used by forecasters to issue accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts,” Brennan said. “These play a significant role in warning communities at risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall threats from these storms.”
Under the agreement, RRRS will share real-time consensus forecast data with the NOAA National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center during hurricane season, collaborate on research endeavors, and share resulting data and information to improve the model. Areas of focus include using artificial intelligence to improve model accuracy, extending forecasts out from five to seven days in advance, and developing tools to better forecast potential tropical cyclones.
NHC will evaluate RRRS’s updated models and include them in official post-season reports. Both teams will meet regularly to discuss progress, integrate new tools into NHC systems, and support training for forecasters.
A final report summarizing the results of the collaboration and any inventions will be submitted to NOAA’s Technology Partnership Office within six months of completing the work.
This CRADA reflects NOAA’s continued commitment to partnering with the private sector to bring cutting-edge science and innovation into the forecasting process—making communities safer and better prepared for the storms ahead.
Media contact
Maria Torres, maria.torres@noaa.gov